Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

JUNK HISTORY

 

For years now, I've displayed the "Junk Science" badge for "science" assertions that are ridiculous and unscientific. I have a new logo to display: "Junk History". And its first awardee is a surprising one to me... it's the CrashCourse YouTube channel, which on July 10, 2021 posted a disgraceful array of misinformation regarding the Constitution of the United States.

The episode focuses on two clauses of the Constitution... the 3/5 Compromise and the Slave Trade clause. But before we discuss those, let's have a look at the introduction.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57xUbch1viI


The narrator (Clint Smith) begins with an analogy that I would not disagree with. In fact, I'd use it myself. However, he uses in a context that has very little to do with historical facts and motivations. The analogy is the difference between wanting to be a wrestler and actually being one. "Sometimes in life, who we say we want to be is not necessarily who we are in that moment." Fair enough, and it does apply to the Constitution at our nation's founding, one hundred percent. And stating that "for millions of people, the aspirations espoused in that document didn't apply to them" is true. But then it runs off the rails slightly more than one minute into the video, with this: "And not only did it not apply to them, but it further entrenched the racial caste system that was already in place." This last part is pure misinformation, as the Constitution did exactly, precisely the opposite with those two aforementioned clauses. But we're not there yet. Let's keep watching. He concludes the intro with "Who America says it is and who America has actually been have not always been neatly aligned." 

Agreed.

We're still less than two minutes into a 10 minute video when we're told that "there were millions of people who called the United States home who, in many ways, became even less free following the ratification of the Constitution." Again this is misinformation. You don't get less free than abject slavery, and the Constitution did nothing to make anyone less free.

Smith notes that "The Constitution was intended to solidify the legal principles of a nation." He goes on to state that in the Constitution the founders "failed to do away with slavery." This isn't exactly misinformation, but it's so horribly incomplete that even the narrator himself appears to be woefully ignorant of the actual purpose of the two clauses he's about to examine. 

Slavery is a shameful institution wherever it exists. And, as noted in the video, the words "slavery" and "slave" don't appear in the Constitution. This isn't because it's just being swept under the rug out of embarrassment; but for two other reasons. 

The first is that it is not a legal principle of this new nation, and never was. It was, however, a legal reality. If it was at all possible to eradicate slavery with the sweep of a pen, many of the Founders would have chosen to do so. But it wasn't possible. Remember, the independence they were fighting for was independence from British rule, and it is this that joined the Colonies into one nation. But they were divided on many other things, thus becoming a rather fragile alliance. 

What's also completely glossed over in the Crash Course is that this fragility was not just suspected, but well known. The Constitutional Convention wasn't our first attempt at unification. It was preceded by the Articles of Confederation, ratified in 1781. Rather than a truly United States, the Articles established a "league of friendship", but remained independent bodies. Effectively, each colony was a separate country, similar to the situation we see in the European Union today. It is in this context that the word "States" applies. These were independent States joined by what was effectively a treaty. They weren't truly united yet, despite the name. And this was the situation until 1789.

What the delegates to the Constitutional Convention knew was that this fragile alliance was not good enough. It was of paramount importance to create a new nation, united despite their glaring differences. It is exceedingly naive to suppose they could do that without compromise. It's literally impossible as they found out. 

People of modern sensibilities want change, not now, but yesterday, and a hundred years before that. Every crisis is immediate. They don't have a long-term vision of the future. And they have even less vision of the past, being incapable of noticing when the policies of one administration are identical to the previous one. That's not how change happens, especially in the 18th century. Compromises would have to be made with the understanding that the principles espoused for the new nation would come to fruition in the future. And that's where the two clauses come in.

It is true that almost seventy years after the Constitution was written, an abolitionist (William Lloyd Garrison) expressed disgust with the compromises that had to be made. Well guess what? The people who made them didn't like them either. But it was the best they could accomplish. 

To call back to the Smith's analogy: 

wanting to be a wrestler may not make you one, 

but training, hard work and time can.

Smith naively states, "It didn't have to be this way. The Founders could have used this as an opportunity to say, hey, look. Let's start this experiment fresh. You know what, team, we inherited slavery from the British, we just fought a war of independence, and that probably means we should make everyone independent." 

The problem with this is that it's exactly this sentiment that was expressed by the Northern states at the Constitutional Convention. And, as with being a wrestler, saying it doesn't make it so. Without compromise, the Southern States would not agree to join the Union.

Remember... at this time there was. no. union. Each of the Colonies had their own laws and were far more independent than today.  To attempt what Smith suggests would have been to go directly from a War of Independence to another war. And it would not have been a "Civil War" either... there was no single nation. It would have been a war between nascent independent nations. This simply would not have happened.

But what would?

Let's indulge in a little Alternate History speculation. One of two things might have happened if the Constitutional Convention failed. The first is the separate States would remain separate. We wouldn't have a United States, but another Europe broken up into squabbling factions. The European Union is a recent phenomenon... just look at the history of warfare on that continent. The second is that we may have had two unions formed from the Colonies... one with slaves, one without. And in the South they may well have continued slavery to the present day. Without unity, the separate States would be more prone to invasion; and without the United States, the history of the entire world would have suffered greatly. The Founders knew nothing of the future, but they did know their vulnerabilities. We know this because the Constitution wasn't created in a vacuum. We have other documents, including the Federalist and Anti-Federalist Papers, detailing the arguments that were made regarding every little clause. And these arguments are ignored by CrashCourse. It's not a matter of skipping over the unimportant parts. Rather, they're skipping the most important ones.

That leads to the second reason the word "slavery" doesn't appear in the Constitution. The need for unity. The Southern states would not ratify a Constitution that outlawed slavery, while the Northern states wouldn't ratify one that included it. So it isn't mentioned, except indirectly, as the implied opposite of "free persons".

Now let's talk about those two clauses, and especially the motivations for including them.


The Three-Fifths Clause

Smith, with the aid of an mis-infographic, states "The Three-Fifths Compromise: A clause in the Constitution that defined enslaved individuals as 3/5 of a human." This is completely untrue.

Nowhere does the Constitution even imply that a slave is three-fifths of a person. Rather, it states that for the purposes of representation in the House of Representatives, three fifths of non-free people (i.e. slaves) would be counted. That's three-fifths of a number of whole persons. Not that each slave was three-fifths of a person. 

The narrator himself notes that his own interpretation is absurd, but that doesn't stop him from saying it. The Founders didn't put nonsensical clauses in the Constitution. They meant three-fifths of the total, and that's exactly what they wrote. Saying otherwise is misinformation, plain and simple. 

The actual purpose of that clause was to restrict the influence of the wealthy Southern slave owners. Otherwise they would be overly represented in Congress. Remember that there wasn't a single slave that these slave owners truly represented. Rather, they represented their own interests. To pretend that it was to restrict the representation of Black slaves is to pretend that these slaves had any representation at all, and this is a most egregious lie. And on declaring independence, one of the charges levied against King George III was taxation without representation. To have slave owners wield the power of unrepresented persons didn't sit well at all with the Northern delegates.

Further, CrashCourse portrays this as a Northern attempt to restrict representation of Blacks in the South rather than slave owners. This -- honest to God, there's no other way to say this -- is a shameful, despicable, deliberate twisting of the truth. Had this clause not be included, all new territories would have become slave states. The clause was to curb the influence of slave owners and restrict the spread of slavery, plain and simple.

Everything else said about this clause in CrashCourse is based on their lie, and is complete nonsense, such as this:

"Even though the South would have loved for Black people to fully count for political purposes, this legislative compromise, which turned Black people into fractions, came to serve as a larger metaphor for the way that Black people were seen by many as less than human."

It is astonishing to me that CrashCourse found a Black narrator ignorant enough to make that statement. If the South would have loved for Black people to fully count for political purposes, they would have given them the vote. Here he is explicitly siding with Southern White supremacist slaveholders rather than those in the North who opposed slavery in its entirety. With a straight face and a steady voice Smith sides with White supremacists. You usually have to read Orwell to witness that level of twisted, perverted logic.

Smith continues with more nonsense. As for the election of 1800, he claims that "many historians argue" that Thomas Jefferson would not have won without the 3/5 compromise, even though the states that went for Jefferson would not have changed their votes. He already had the support of the Southern states with the compromise, and there is no historical evidence whatsoever that the outcome he actually achieved would have changed had there been even more Southern Whites in the Electoral College. 

Let's repeat: SLAVES HAD NO REPRESENTATION IN GOVERNMENT. Why would any in the abolitionist North be in favor of handing power to their oppressors? The North was against it, not because they thought Blacks were "fractions" of a person, but because they opposed slavery. So they pushed for as good a compromise as they could at the time. Work it out. Do the math. Then ask yourself, what part of what Smith asserts is not completely stupid? Be prepared to back it up, though quite frankly, you'll find that level of preparation impossible to achieve.


The Slave Trade Clause. 

Spoiler: he doesn't do any better here.

The text of the Constitution says, 

"The Migration of Importation of such Persons [meaning slaves] as any of the States now existing shall think proper to admit, shall not be prohibited by the Congress prior to the Year one thousand eight hundred and eight, but a Tax or duty may be imposed on such Importation, not exceeding ten dollars per person."

Smith explains, "This is basically a really fancy way of saying that the Federal government can not limit how many individuals were imported to the United States." 

More accurately, it's a really plain way of saying that the Southern states had until 1808 to end the practice. And that's exactly how it panned out. In 1807 Congress passed a law abolishing the importation of slaves. This took effect in 1808, at the earliest possible moment allowed by the Constitution. Again, not so much as one Black took part in that vote. Were the Founders as racist as depicted, it could not have passed. At all. Ever.

Also If CrashCourse's interpretation was correct, you'd expect a last-minute flood of imported slaves. In actuality, between 1525 and 1866, 12.5 million Africans were shipped to the New World. In all that time -- a span of 341 years -- how many were shipped to North America? 

Answer: 388 thousand. Three percent spread over 400 years. (To put this in perspective the Mali emperor, Mansa Musa, took 12,000 slaves with him on a single trip to Mecca. Trading slaves in Africa had a long history among Africans long before Europeans became customers. And some Africans enslave others even to this day.)

388 thousand still too many kidnappings for my taste no matter how long it was spread out, and no matter whether it was imposed or not. But historically, the US slave trade was domestic. Except for that three percent, the rest of the slaves were born and raised here.

So why is that number important? Because Smith states that it "allowed for slavery to exist in the South where it directly sustained the economy, and allowed slavery to remain illegal at the local level where it had already been abolished." 

This is nonsense. Again, slavery by this time was a domestic enterprise. It didn't need that three percent to allow it to exist. Nevertheless, kidnapping human beings from their homeland and transporting them across the Atlantic was abominable, and the Constitution put a date on the end of that practice. CrashCourse's assertion that Southern states relied on the transatlantic slave trade to replenish high death rates is again nonsensical. The numbers simply don't support it. Who did support the Slave trade were the bigoted slave owners, but their excuses for doing so were specious at best. Rather than call them out based on the economic facts, CrashCourse again takes the White supremacists' arguments at face value. 

In his conclusion, Smith continues, speaking of the Founders: "It's important to understand who was and who wasn't included in their vision for this new nation: who would be the beneficiaries of this promise of Democracy, and whose bodies would be used and cast aside in pursuit of them."

Indeed. And it's as important to know that the Founders had a road map for that. It was an actual vision. They limited the influence of slaveholders from Day One. They put a limit on the transatlantic slave trade. And their grandchildren died by the hundreds of thousands to free Black slaves when many of them from the North had never even seen a Black person in their lives. 

In recent years, Black people in this country are taught to embrace victimhood, with arguably reasonable cause. Many of their ancestors were born and bred in captivity. That is not an excuse to do as CrashCourse does and brush aside those who had a vision for a better future as well as those who argued and literally fought and died to make it happen simply because it's convenient to paint everyone, North and South, racist or not, as racists. And it's certainly no excuse for espousing supremacist arguments under the pretense of educating.

This CrashCourse is race-baiting and supports White supremacist arguments. It ascribes the wrong motivations to the wrong people, and misrepresents historical facts. So for blatant historical malfeasance, the CrashCourse channel gets my first "Junk History" badge. 

May they wear it with pride. They've earned it.


Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Freedom of Speech

 


It's been a while since I've posted anything, mainly because I've been writing a book while at the same time battling cancer. But I would like to take time to post a couple of thoughts:

Censorship is evil. If you can't handle free speech, then YOU are evil. It's your reality. Live with it, or change for the better.

If you simply can't handle the thought that someone might express an opinion with which you disagree, you're not a liberal: you're a totalitarian. You're not a socialist: you're anti-social. 

The only way to test an idea is to pit it against another. If your thoughts are so fragile that you cannot under any circumstances allow that to happen, preferring to label competing ideas as "hate speech", defined as that which is at odds with your own beliefs despite your clear attempts to disguise that, then your own beliefs are too weak to defend. You have already lost the argument.


Again, it's your reality. 

 Live with it, or change for the better.


Sunday, April 21, 2019

Some Light Reading


Do you think you spot the fake news better than the "other side"?
Liberals and Conservatives Are Both Susceptible to Fake News, but for Different Reasons
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/liberals-and-conservatives-are-both-susceptible-to-fake-news-but-for-different-reasons/


Do you think the "other side" is evil and wicked, but you got it right?
New studies suggest liberals are as blinkered and biased as conservativeshttps://digest.bps.org.uk/2017/04/25/new-studies-suggest-liberals-are-as-blinkered-and-biased-as-conservatives/
The “Other Side” Is Not Dumbhttps://medium.com/@SeanBlanda/the-other-side-is-not-dumb-2670c1294063


Do you think that just because you're liberal you "fucking love science"?
Liberals and low IQ believe in astrology morehttp://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2007/09/liberals-and-low-iq-believe-in-astrology-more/#.XLxeQXVKjHw
Liberals Don’t Really F**king Love Sciencehttps://reason.com/2016/11/21/liberals-dont-really-love-fking-science/
Scientific literacy, optimism about science and conservatismhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886916300472?np=y
Why Everyone Believes in Magic (Even You) - Live Science
https://www.livescience.com/19665-belief-magic.html
Who is More Anti-Science: Conservatives or Liberals?
https://psmag.com/environment/who-is-more-anti-science-conservatives-or-liberals
(I myself have previously described the "cargo cult" understanding of science that I've observed among many of those who proclaim that they "fucking love science". They treat science as if it were magic; and worse: they treat science as if it were a person or set of conclusions instead of a process by which we evaluate data and make our own conclusions. As a result, "science" to them is no different, conceptually, to the sort of deference to authority that you'd get from any religion. You can't "fucking love science" if you don't fucking know what it fucking is.)

You don't believe those links?
The Real War on Sciencehttps://www.city-journal.org/html/real-war-science-14782.html


Do you think your political and economic views are well reasoned?
Millennials' Political Views Don't Make Any Sense
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/07/millennials-economics-voting-clueless-kids-these-days/374427/

Do you want to fix that? Subscribe to this site: https://fee.org/


Do you think the "other side" is full of hypocrites, but you're ok?
Are Liberals Bigger Drug Users?https://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/liberals-drug-use/2008/06/16/id/324135/ 


Do you think that bias is always bad?
Editorial Bias
https://fee.org/articles/editorial-bias/


(Know your biases and control them. Treat them as tools. Do not be so "open minded" that your brain falls out.)


Friday, August 31, 2018

A Strange Game...

To repurpose a quote from WOPPER (War Games, 1983), Social Outrage is "A STRANGE GAME. THE ONLY WINNING MOVE IS NOT TO PLAY."

From HotAir.com:
Wil Wheaton Driven Off Social Media By ‘Very, Very Angry’ Social Justice Warriors

How about a nice game of Chess, Wil?

And in your downtime, you might consider whether all of the people you've attacked and/or supported the attack of were any more fairly treated than you feel yourself to be now.





Monday, June 25, 2018

Supreme Court: Free Speech Means Free Speech

A year ago, Emily Jashinsky reported in The Washington Examiner:
It's a little puzzling that this was reported in the Opinion section rather than as a straight news, because it's mostly straight news, and the small bit of opinion at the end of the piece is easily edited.

In summary, the case "Matal v. Tam" concerns a dance band ("The Slants") whose application for trademark protection was denied under a Lanham Act provision prohibiting the registration of trademarks that may “disparage ... or bring ... into contemp[t] or disrepute” any “persons, living or dead.” 15 U. S. C. §1052(a).

In a unanimous decision, the court upheld the First Amendment and declared the clause unconstitutional. The court unambiguously declared, "We now hold that this provision violates the Free Speech Clause of the First Amendment. It offends a bedrock First Amendment principle: Speech may not be banned on the ground that it expresses ideas that offend."

Here's the court's actual decision [PDF]

Never mind speech that might offend. Unambiguously offensive speech is protected.

And that's how it should be. As has been mentioned before, popular speech needs no protection, and cannot be the reason for the existence of the Free Speech clause of the First Amendment. As stated by Justice Kennedy:
"A law that can be directed against speech found offensive to some portion of the public can be turned against minority and dissenting views to the detriment of all. The First Amendment does not entrust that power to the government’s benevolence. Instead, our reliance must be on the substantial safeguards of free and open discussion in a democratic society."
In their decision, the court holds that the trademarks people choose for their businesses is private speech, not government speech; and that it does not become government speech due to the issuance of a trademark. It is therefore protected, and the disparagement clause of the Lantham Act is therefore unconstitutional.

The court further opines, "We need not decide today whether respondent could bring suit under §43(a) if his application for federal registration had been lawfully denied under the disparagement clause." This is because the disparagement clause itself is unconstitutional and may not now be used as a reason for denying a trademark. In other words, the issue is moot.

--==//oOo\\==--

What the Examiner's story fails to mention is that the members of The Slants are Asian Americans who chose the name to "reclaim" it and strip it of its negativity. In my own opinion, denial of the trademark itself constitutes the government telling a group whether or not they should be offended by the labels they apply to themselves. I see this as being blatant patronizing. Can you imagine telling a Black rapper he can't use the "N" word because he should be offended by his own usage of it? Same thing. 

Thin-skinned opponents of Free Speech should count their blessings. Many countries, including Western societies such as those of the UK and Australia, have no such Constitutional guarantees of protection.

The defense against offensive speech are two-fold: 1. You don't have to sit and listen to it, and 2. You have the same right to voice your own dissenting opinion. Opponents of Free Speech would do well to heed the words of an English author on this subject (often attributed to Voltaire):
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."
-- Evelyn Beatrice Hall (1906)
I myself spent seven years in military service voluntarily defending this and other unalienable rights for people with whom I disagree on a great many things, so it warms my heart to see the Supreme Court affirm something that has been well understood from the very inception of this country until it was forgotten by ignorant academics who, to their everlasting shame, should know better.

As I mention above, this was decided and reported a year ago. So why am I blogging about it now? Because many of the people who were ignorant a year ago are just as ignorant now. And if it was shameful then, it's a bloody disgrace now. It's time to speak up and let others do the same.

Friday, June 15, 2018

North Korea

It astonishes me that people who ostensibly want peace are so stubbornly, obstinately opposed to it when it looks like they'll get it from someone they don't like.

I've never been a fan of Trump. You only have to look in the archives of this blog where I called him "unelectable". Obviously I was wrong on that point. But let's give credit where credit is due.


This has Trump opponents squirming, although by every objective measure... EVERY objective measure... Trump has earned the nomination solidly. Do not forget that this same prize was presented in 2009 to a former U.S. President despite having had no achievements warranting the award, as nominations for the award had closed only 11 days after he had assumed his office.

Trump, on the other hand, has Korea.

Now, we can cringe at his methods. But it's important to remember that previous efforts and previous methods failed... every single time. Albert Einstein is apocryphally credited with the observation, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”. It's not lunacy to recognize lunacy and to take a different approach.

Trump's approach is outlined in a video, produced for an audience of one (Kim Jong-un), and presented at the beginning of the Singapore negotiations:


The New York Times decided to lampoon the approach with this opinion piece: Trump Made Kim a Movie Trailer. We Made It Better. Oh, if that were only true. But it's not. This edit was made by people who clearly don't understand... well... much of anything, and who allow their emotions and tribal politics to stand in the way of actual results. This attitude is exactly why none of the previous approaches have worked, so forgive me if I'm unimpressed by the flawed criticisms of those who have repeatedly embraced failure.

To understand why this video (and approach) is likely to work, you first have to understand who Kim Jong Un is, and understand what the end-game is. What is the actual goal?

Though Trump's opponents would like to cast him as simply a despotic tyrant, this falls far short of the full picture. Kim Jong-un did not subjugate his people. That was done decades before his birth, by his grandfather, Kim Il-sung; and it was carried on by his father, Kim Jong-il. Kim Jong-un was born into this dynasty in 1984, and was raised from birth to do the same. He has known nothing else. As the heir to a dynasty, Kim Jong-un does have the vanity which makes this sort of presentation effective.

North Korea development
compared to its neighbors
He is also someone who sees the vast difference in prosperity between his own country and that of South Korea and the rest of the world. He's not blind. And he actually wants that stuff. Again, the video targets those things that are important to him. He's the audience, not you. The fact that "you're not fooled" is a silly observation. It's not intended to fool you.

It's not intended to fool Kim Jong-un, either. And this is where it moves beyond mere propaganda.

The video tells the truth.

Although the options may not be as binary as depicted in the video, North Korea's present state isn't very far from the worst case as depicted. And South Korea's present state is very much like the best case as depicted. That's how effective sales pitches are done.. by showing the best possible outcome. By throwing away the nukes, opening the borders, and welcoming investment, North Korea can actually achieve exactly what the video promises. At the very outset of open relations and investment, labor costs in North Korea will be miniscule, and North Koreans can exploit that to raise themselves by their bootstraps, just as the South Koreans, Japanese, and many other Asian countries have already done. They will become prosperous and peaceful.

A taste of respect
Kim Jong-un wants Korea to be accepted into the family of nations. The way to do that is to do it. So we see the U.S. and North Korean flags side-by-side as a taste of the respect that Kim could have permanently should he change his ways.

This meeting in Singapore was intended to give Kim a realistic path to everything he wants in terms of material, culture, and respect. That path is peace.

And that's what we want, too. That's when we focus on our goals. If we were small and tribal, we'd insist on punishment being heaped on Kim Jong-un for the current state of affairs, and for the actions of his father and grandfather as well. But that will not get us to peace. So is it unfair to "let him get away with it" by casting a despotic ruler as "the hero of his people"? Well, think about it... if you're literally born into a position of ultimate power and you voluntarily decide to step back from that so that your people can benefit with jobs and money and comfort and prestige, then the label fits. And if you can persuade someone to do that, you deserve a Nobel Peace Prize.

Bad behavior hasn't gotten Kim anywhere. But good behavior must be rewarded, or you're just not going to get it. The commentators who opine that Trump is "giving away too much" fail to see the reality that Trump's not giving away anything that won't be returned. Opening North Korea to investment will yield profit. Not only will North Korea improve, but so will the investors. That's something that even Kim can see and our socialist-minded Left ironically can not.

If you look at that and still want to be small and tribal, so be it. But you're not proving your intelligence, and your derision is simply reflected back on you. You are easily ignored, as well you should be.

Nothing in life is guaranteed. This may not work. In part it depends on gaining the buy-in of small and tribal people. But it's far more likely to work than anything we've done so far.

Credit where due.

Bill Maher gets it. Watch this.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

A Tale of Two Rios

I just spent a week in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Although that seems straightforward, it does bear some exposition. Like "New York", "Rio" is both a city and a state. And like New York, the two things are in no way identical.

Here is one Rio... the one everyone knows about:

Here is the other...

I was there on business, and for the majority of the trip, I stuck with my group. But for two days I broke away and did my own thing.

One of the things that I wanted to do when I was there was to see the stars of the Southern Hemisphere. I took a pair of high-powered binoculars for the purpose. So when my friends went out drinking, I went to Macumba Beach, which was practically deserted compared to the beaches of Ipanema and Copacabana:

My friend Mayank took this pic the night
before I went stargazing.
I was the last of my group to leave. On Saturday I was by myself in Rio for the entire day. So I hired an Uber. Now, Uber is something I've never used before this trip, and there are both very good and very bad things about it. Because everything is done on-line... setting your destination, making your payment, rating the driver... there is absolutely no need whatsoever to talk to the driver. That can be a great thing when there are language problems. None of us spoke any Portuguese of any consequence, and it meant we could get around. And when I was with the group, none of us spoke to the driver very much. But it also means that an Uber ride can be a very lonely experience if you're by yourself, and that's very, very bad.

But... Google Translate is quite possibly the greatest invention in the history of Mankind. What I found when I was by myself was that if you put Google Translate in the conversation mode, that Uber driver transformed from a driver to an animated tour guide. In every case -- and I took a lot of rides -- the driver laughed with delight at the first translation, and then became animated and talkative. The translation's not perfect, but you can tell when it "hears" things wrong, and we all laughed at the mistakes. The main thing I had to do was tell the driver not to talk to the phone, but to talk to me, and let the phone do the work. Each driver loved the experience so much he installed Google Translate on the spot.

On Saturday, I had one driver for almost the entire day, and several for the remainder. I was the first U.S. citizen that two of my drivers had ever met, and the first that any of them had talked to at length.

My first intention was to visit the statue of "Christ the Redeemer", but by the time we got there (the drive took nearly an hour) the queue for the tram was a two-hour wait. Although my driver (Fernando) was willing to park and wait for me, I wasn't going to make him wait for at least three hours while I went up there, snapped a few photos, and came back down. Besides, clouds covered the statue itself. So I told him I'd rather drive around with him and talk some more. Through Translate, Fernando told me that that it was an incredible sight, and he would feel bad if I didn't see it. I responded that there are thousands of amazing sights in this world that I would never see. Missing this one wouldn't hurt me... and besides, I would rather just spend the time with him, hearing what he had to tell me about Brazil.

As we drove around, we visited the "hot" spots, but also drove past the favelas. But what was more important to me was to see places that tourists don't see, so we drove through the country as well. And as we drove, we saw some of the economic disparities like those that you can see for yourself in the pictures above. A great many houses are built by the inhabitants themselves using cast-off construction material like re-used cinder blocks and sheet metal for roofs. And if you ask how anyone can live like that, the answer is that any house is better than no house.

The answer confirms something that I suspected before I went on this trip; and now I believe it firmly: there are a great many people in the United States who think they are poor only because they have never personally experienced poverty.

When you stop at almost any traffic light outside the city centers, Brazilian children will jump in front of cars to juggle or dance (poorly for the most part) or try to sell useless items. While it all seems very exotic and entertaining when you're with a group of tourists, it takes on a completely different flavor when you're alone with a Brazilian who's explaining that while such antics don't really work to earn money, they do it because they have no other means, and no hope for improvement.

My drivers were completely consistent in blaming these problems on corruption in their government. Fernando, in particular, responded to my query about the juxtaposition of poverty and wealth in a way that almost made my heart break. He said that yes, Brazil has much beauty and much ugliness. Only he wasn't talking about the favelas; he was talking about the people. So I told him, "Fernando, I have never seen or met an ugly Brazilian. You're all beautiful. I want you to put this in your heart: just because you have less than someone else, never believe you are worth less." He told me that he wanted to come to the United States where something like that could be true. "Os Estados Unidos são ótimos e bonitos."

People like those I met are not looking for aid: they're looking for opportunity. We in the US have so much that we take for granted. I'm not talking about things. I'm talking about the hope that Americans can rise to any station from any beginning. Because it is true that here you can be whatever you want if you're not hampered by your own disbelief. With very few exceptions, it's true that our poor are not destitute. It's true that we have individual dignity that can be relinquished, but never taken. Even as elitists smugly deride the thought, the common people of the world look to us. We are the hope of the world.


Thursday, January 25, 2018

The Impact of Tariffs on Solar Energy

I just saw this shared on Facebook, which leads me to an economic evaluation I'm still ruminating:


The statement that "solar employs more people than coal and oil" is Fact 1, and it checks out on sites like Forbes.com:
In the United States, more people were employed in solar power last year than in generating electricity through coal, gas and oil energy combined. According to a new report from the U.S. Department of Energy, solar power employed 43 percent of the Electric Power Generation sector's workforce in 2016, while fossil fuels combined accounted for just 22 percent. It's a welcome statistic for those seeking to refute Donald Trump's assertion that green energy projects are bad news for the American economy.
That "welcome statistic" is one of the things I'm evaluating here.
The 30% tariff is a partial truth, as we'll see below. The rest of the text is opinion, which I'm also evaluating.

Fact 2 is this table, from the US Energy Information Administration:


Solar produces 0.9% of "utility scale" power. Not quite 1% of the total power generation.

Fact 3 is this report from Yale University
For all the conflict surrounding rooftop solar, solar energy last year generated just under 1 percent of U.S. electricity, and utility-scale solar farms have three times the generating capacity of residential solar installations. That disparity is likely to grow.
So let's add another 0.3% for residential. Residential installations, however, aren't made entirely on economic factors. If they were, you wouldn't do it at all. However, there is perceived value for the customer in independence (lowering dependency on utility-sourced power) and "being green". So this can (and does) grow in defiance of economic interests. However, in some states, being "off the grid" is a non-starter, as consumers are required by law to be connected to the power grid even when they are fully capable of producing their own power. Florida, for example, requires residential solar to shut off when the grid does to protect the lives of power workers. Some solar companies simply refuse to do business in such states.

Fact 4 is this article, again from Forbes, comparing the costs of utility scale solar:
Which Is Cheaper -- Rooftop Solar Or Utility-Scale Solar?
The study found that projected utility-scale PV power costs will range from 6.6¢/kWh to 11.7¢/kWh across all scenarios, while projected power costs for a typical, customer-owned rooftop PV system will range from 12.3¢/kWh to 19.3¢/kWh.
So utility scale solar is much cheaper. Still not as cheap as coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation, though:
There are no obvious fuel costs, but PV solar has O&M costs of about 1.3¢/kWh, which comes to about $400 million over the life of this array. So to produce 32 billion kWhs at about $2.3 billion means a life-cycle cost of 7¢/kWh. This is getting close to the range of normal baseload providers like coal, nuclear and hydro, which have life-cycle costs of 5.1¢/kWh, 4.1¢/kWh and 2.7¢/kWh, respectively.
Fact 5 is the tariff imposed is on imported solar panels. While @Now1Solar certainly seems to see this as a bad thing, their opinion is not shared by US manufacturers that the tariff is intended to protect. From Time.com:
Trump’s solar decision comes almost nine months after Suniva Inc., a bankrupt U.S. module manufacturer with a Chinese majority owner, sought import duties on solar cells and panels. It asserted that it had suffered “ serious injury” from a flood of cheap panels produced in Asia. A month later, the U.S. unit of German manufacturer SolarWorld AG signed on as a co-petitioner, adding heft to Suniva’s cause.
Even given that I am philosophically opposed to tariffs, whether this will substantially harm the industry depends a lot on whether you're talking about the domestic industry, the Chinese importers, or the overall picture once the industry stabilizes after the tariffs take effect. That said, it appears that at the very least, the meme is misleading in that it projects the harm anticipated by @Now1Solar to the entire industry, rather than limiting it to those dependent on importers. This is despite the fact that domestic producers will clearly benefit. Thus the projection of job losses is most certainly hyperbole. To what degree, I do not yet know.

Now, keep in mind the additional fact that energy companies are not in the business of hiring people. Rather, they hire people to further their business of producing energy. That energy, in turn, allows other companies to be productive and hire people. If we could, as a nation, produce energy with no labor at all, freeing people for more productive pursuits, we would.

Given all this; as rational beings, what conclusions are we to make regarding the economic efficiency of solar power (employing 43 percent of the sector's workforce to generate around 1.2% of the total power)? And is that really a "welcome statistic" for solar proponents?



UPDATE 1: here's a bit more on the implied "unfairness" of the imposed tariffs: From PV magazine, The case for U.S. solar manufacturing.

The article describes the illegal "dumping" of subsidized Chinese panels into the US market to drive American manufacturers out of business. And regarding the predictions in the meme at the top of this page,
Opponents also contend that relief from imports could cause layoffs in the installation business.  The same corner of the industry predicted similar job-loss fallout from the first two cases – losses that never materialized as the U.S. market kept right on growing.
And Tesla doesn't seem to be bothered at all: Tesla commits to Gigafactory 2 expansion despite Trump’s 30% solar tariff.
Together with Panasonic, Tesla has begun production of solar cells in-house at Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo. By manufacturing solar modules and photovoltaic cells at its New York-based facility, Tesla would largely be unaffected by the 30 percent tariff imposed by the US government.


UPDATE 2: If you've done the math and extended the amount of effort to expand solar from its current 1.2% capacity to replace the 83.9% of the power production currently provided by natural gas, coal and nuclear, you should quickly come to the conclusion that solar... sucks. It simply does.

Photovoltaic solar energy horribly inefficient. It seems to me the most effective way of using solar energy to produce massive amounts of electricity involves harnessing the Water Cycle. Let the solar energy evaporate water into the atmosphere, where it then precipitates on high ground. This runoff is then collected behind dams, where it turns gravity-fed turbines to generate electricity. 100% of the water that passes through the turbines is returned to the rivers and oceans to be re-evaporated as part of the Water Cycle. The major inefficiency of this system is that some of the water soaks into the ground or used by living things, and some evaporates from the reservoir prior to use for power generation. And YES. This IS solar power. It is infinitely sustainable and infinitely renewable. It's what powers the planet.

Again, this is THE most efficient use of solar energy. And it still provides only 6.5% of our total power. And we can't dam every river. (Well, we could, but we won't, and if we did it still wouldn't match our power consumption needs). So how do we make up the difference? Well, this talk by Michael Shellenberger should put solar in context compared to nuclear energy.


Keep in mind that Schellenberger's talk focuses on obsolete reactors. Modern reactors are much safer.

My conclusion: I'm completely unimpressed by the complaints of the solar lobby. Economically, solar energy is a luxury item, bought because you want it and can afford it. As it stands, 43% of our energy effort is expended providing limited amounts of solar energy to basically a few economically privileged homes. Good for them: it's a free market. But I'm not holding that up as a "welcome statistic" by any measure. It is, to use an electrically-charged word, "deplorable". Environmentally, solar makes no sense at all.



Sources:
  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/01/25/u-s-solar-energy-employs-more-people-than-oil-coal-and-gas-combined-infographic/#6a74fc022800
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/07/30/which-is-cheaper-rooftop-solar-or-utility-scale-solar/#6010a23b1e5d
  3. https://e360.yale.edu/features/utilities-grapple-with-rooftop-solar-and-the-new-energy-landscape
  4. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
  5. http://time.com/5113472/donald-trump-solar-panel-tariff/
  6. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/08/31/the-case-for-u-s-solar-manufacturing/
  7. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-expanding-gigafactory-2-despite-trump-30-percent-tariff/

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Trump Frenzy Continues

Judging from the Liberals on my Facebook page, they just can't get enough of Trump. It's a parade of all-Trump, all-the-time, and for the next 3-1/2 years personal lives are something to be neglected to the point of atrophy.

Ah, well. Today I saw a rather long list of possibilities for the demise of Trump's term in office. According to this armchair pundit, Trump has in the neighborhood of a 1-in-16 chance of finishing his first term. I say this because the other 15 options revolve around some ignominious removal from office by impeachment or resignation.

By the way, I'm 100% behind Richard Dreyfuss' non-partisan initiative to bring Civics education back into grade school curriculum.


If my left-leaning friends applied Civics to the issue, they'd remember that it is not illegal for the President of the United States, who happens to be the Chief Executive... top kahuna of the executive branch of government... to fire someone in his employ. That includes the FBI Director. Their dislike of the timing of it does not make it a high crime or misdemeanor. Their disagreement with his operational decisions do not constitute grounds for impeachment.

If my left-leaning friends applied Civics to the issue, they'd remember that it is not illegal for the President of the United States, who happens to be the countries chief diplomat, to talk to the leaders of other countries or maintain friendly relationships with them. Their fantasies of traitorous subterfuge does not make it illegal for world leaders to meet, talk, tell jokes, laugh, etc.. Even when those leaders have substantive differences of policy, they can still be cordial and civil. A joke shared between adversaries does not make the policy differences disappear.

Unfortunately, many (and by no means all) of my friends and acquaintances on the left have no comprehension of this, having lost the ability to disagree cordially themselves. They just can't do it. It has nothing to do with politics, really; if you're bad, everything about you must be bad. Whatever you sell is bad, whatever you like is bad, and your every purpose must be nefarious. All it takes is one opinion. Ask Laci Green. A die-hard feminist, all she said was that the other side had some valid points and that she'd continue to be open to conversations about opposing views, and she got lambasted for it by her leftist "friends". I've found that there is a large group of people on that side for whom "friendship" is a truly foreign concept. There are people who are useful to them, and there are enemies. And this is a lop-sided criticism, yes. I personally know many people on the left who are like that, specifically about interpersonal relationships. I personally know no one on the right who is. I disagree strongly on a number of the talking points of both sides, and that's my experience.

For the record, I strongly suspect Trump is acting the way he is because he has no intention of running for a second term. You're used to analyzing the actions of politicians, whereas this is not a politician. This is someone who thinks of himself as a great negotiator, and that's how you need to analyze his actions. Misdirection and manipulation. Put on a little circus over there so you can get some stuff done quietly over here. Over-ask so as to more readily "settle" for what you wanted in the first place. For instance, people forget all about whether there should be a Wall if they spend 100% of their time arguing over who's going to pay for it. See? It's a completely different conversation.

So at this point my thought is that Trump's going to finish his full term, and he'll do it without impeachment or resignation. Resignation will never even be on the table. And he will continue to operate in a way that completely baffles the left, even when he delivers many of the things they actually want. And the left will continue to oppose him on those items, even though they formerly wanted them. Go figure.

Sunday, May 07, 2017

On Pre-Existing Conditions

There are a lot of folks protesting right now about the fact that the GOP's proposed healthcare law does not force insurance providers to cover pre-existing conditions. The fact that they're out there protesting tells me that they don't know a whole lot about insurance.

I'm going to start with this and then give some alternatives. Perhaps after that you'll understand the insurance company's position (and it isn't "greed").

Pre-existing conditions should never be a part of any insurance plan. 


Why?

Because if you allow pre-existing conditions, it's not insurance. 

At its most basic, insurance is a bet. Let's take something other than healthcare as an example to remove the emotion from the equation. Every month, I bet State Farm that my car will be wrecked. Every month, State Farm takes that bet. Both of us ante up: my ante is called a "premium", which is set according to the odds; and State Farm's ante is held in their liquid assets... cash on hand for the purpose of paying off such bets. If my car isn't wrecked, I lose the bet, and State Farm keeps my premium. If my car is wrecked, then I win the bet, and State Farm pays the cost of repair or replacement.

That's very simple, right? Almost indistinguishable from gambling. Now there are a few things that legally differentiate this bet from gambling, but I'll focus on just two to start: One is the idea of "insurable interest". As the insured, I have to suffer loss in order to win the bet. The other is the idea of "proximate cause". That is, the the reason for the loss must occur within the term (the effective dates) of the policy.

That's because insurance is a hedge against uncertain loss. Take away the loss or the uncertainty, and it's not insurance.

And again let's compare it to a bet so you can see it clearly.
1: Tim flips a coin and covers it so no one else can see it. William bets you even money that it's heads. Is that a fair bet?
2: Tim flips a coin and then shows it to William. William then bets you even money that it's heads. Is that a fair bet?
Of course you wouldn't take the second bet. No one would. That's because the state of the coin is a pre-existing condition. It is something that you personally would never accept if you were offered the wager. You wouldn't even pretend otherwise.

But that's a bet. Now, with insurance:
3: You buy insurance, then wreck your car. You file a claim about the accident. The insurance company pays you and you use the money to fix your car.
4: You wreck your car, then buy insurance. You file a claim about the accident. You've committed insurance fraud and you are arrested.
The reason for the insurance fraud in 4 is that the auto damage is a pre-existing condition.

This is completely straightforward and logical and fair. Obviously so.

Now let's look at a third legal point: mitigation. The insured person must treat his property as if it were not insured. In other words, he's required to take steps to avoid damage that would cause a payout. So if you own a car you have to drive safely, service it regularly, make sure it has oil and other fluids in it, keep the brakes in good repair, etc. This is your responsibility, and is not part of insurance. It also means you can't cause an "accident". You can't deliberately set fire to your property or fail to take reasonable precautions to prevent it from catching fire, etc. Otherwise the insurance company would not pay out, and would prosecute you.

Obvious, isn't it?
If I knew who created this, I'd
credit it.
If these restrictions did not exist, it's blatantly obvious that anyone could simply wreck their car, go to the insurance company, plop down a premium... say a couple of hundred bucks... and buy a new car at someone else's expense. The insurance company would be paying out far more than they get in and would soon go out of business. In order to prevent that, they would first raise their premiums in an attempt to cover the losses. This would cause their legitimate customers to defect to other companies and hasten the demise of the idiots who allowed payouts without proximate cause. Since this is obviously detrimental to society, insurance fraud is illegal.


Healthcare Insurance 

The exact same thing is true of insurance when applied to healthcare. You're still making a bet, you're still hedging against uncertain loss, and the insurance company must still remain solvent. If you screw with any of that, then your premiums for legitimate customers skyrocket, their deductibles increase, and insurance companies are forced out of the market.

This is exactly what we have seen happen in practice under the Affordable Healthcare Act... "Obamacare". It is not only mathematically inevitable, it is completely predictable, and in fact was predicted by many people in many places, including on this blog. And they were absolutely right.

Part of the problem is clarity of language. Although much of what is lumped together as healthcare insurance is actual insurance, much of it isn't. Rather, it's a pre-payment plan. This isn't fiction. Read about the formative history of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield organizations and you'll see that these plans were created to increase the profitability of hospitals and doctors, respectively. It was to encourage people to use those services when they otherwise wouldn't have in the money-tight years of the Great Depression. So there are expenses included that are not the result of actual loss. These are are things like regular checkups or preventative medications and supplements. They are maintenance expenses that would mitigate actual insurance payouts. But because these prepayment plans are lumped in with insurance coverage, we've gotten used to calling the whole lump "healthcare insurance".

Until the last few years, pre-existing conditions were still disallowed, for the same reasonable and fair reasons that it's disallowed in every other insurance venue. It is only in the emotionally-charged case of healthcare that people fail to call insurance fraud what it is and actively insist that insurance companies fall victim to this cheat. I'm using my words carefully here. If you want pre-existing conditions to be covered by insurance, then you explicitly endorse fraud and cheating. If this bothers you, it's not because you're upset by fraud; you're upset at being called out for it. I'm not saying this to insult you; I'm saying it because you need to think in new ways... ways that actually address and solve root causes.


Fixing It

Consider this: no one ever buys a drill because he wants a drill. A person buys a drill because he wants a hole. When you consider the actual problem, it's clear that it doesn't matter whether you gain the hole by owning, renting, or borrowing a drill; or by lasering, sandblasting, punching, or pre-forming the hole. So long as you get your hole, the mechanism doesn't matter.

Likewise, you have to ask yourself whether you want healthcare insurance coverage for every possible healthcare expense, or affordable, accessible healthcare. If you can pay $4/month at Wal-mart for maintenance medication, do you need to pay $50/month so that it's "covered" and paid for by an insurance company? If you could visit a doctor for a $50 office fee, do you need to pay an additional $200/month so that two checkups a year are included in your "coverage"? Should you force someone else to pay those maintenance fees for you?

Just because something isn't paid for by insurance, that does not mean that it shouldn't be treated, or that people should be allowed to die, or that people who want a robust and viable insurance industry want you to die. None of those things need be true.

It simply means that we should find a different way of paying for it. You have to think about the actual problem. And the problem is not insurance. And if it were, institutionalized insurance fraud is not the way to "fix" it. Rather, it's a guaranteed road to a permanently broken system.

There are multiple ways of addressing the actual need. In socialized medicine, it's simply payed by taxes. You could put the providers on the government payroll and pay them a salary. Now you're not limited by the payments, but by the number of service providers, hours in the day, and demand. Obviously this raises taxes, but it does not require you to pay for everyone. We currently have single-payer means-tested social medicine programs in the United States in the form of Medicare and Medicaid. And for decades, no hospital that accepts government funds in this country has been allowed to turn away a patient in immediate need of care. That's the law, and it's posted at or near the entrance of your nearest emergency room. Go look. That's the truth that's swept under the rug. But rather than focus on improving these programs -- which are literally intended to solve the very problems that the ACA attempts to address -- the architects of the ACA instead decided to break healthcare for everyone. That was just flatly stupid.

Every hospital posts a notice similar to this one.

In addition to these programs, there are other workable solutions. One way is through privately or publicly funded charities.

We know this is possible because we do it today. The Shriners famously operate 22 children's hospitals. Only about 15% of their budget comes from public grants. The rest is derived from dues willingly paid by Shriners and by voluntary contributions to their fundraising efforts. No child is ever billed for their services. Not directly, and not through their insurance companies either. The same is true of RiteCare provided by Scottish Rite masons for preschool children with language disabilities. Not one cent is ever demanded from a patient. The same is true of St. Jude's Children's Research hospital. The point is that we know that alternative methods work and that they are viable and that they solve the actual problem of health care for their patients.

Innovative solutions like these and others are overlooked in the broader healthcare market because people have been trained to jump blindly past the issue of whether breaking private insurance is a good idea to focus on how to break it in the most egregious manner possible. They don't think of it that way, but that's what they're doing. Furthermore, many people have been taught that it is not their responsibility to look after their own bodies... that they have a "right" to have someone else do it for them. They actually take more personal responsibility for their cars than they do for their lives, and they think this is somehow normal. That's a societal illness of its own, and it needs to be fixed as part of the overall solution.  Of course helping people is a priority; but "help" requires some personal accountability by definition.

Insurance is one of the most historically precise industries there is. Actuaries account for everything, be it cause or correlation. When they set odds it's because that's what the odds are. The wishful thinking of government legislators cannot change them. The wishful thinking of people who desire free money cannot do better. Honestly, I think the best thing we can do about private insurance is leave it alone and address the problems of the uninsured independently. That won't happen until you recognize what those problems actually are.


Saturday, May 06, 2017

Short Story: Inside the Box

When the world is free from want, what is there left to want?


INSIDE THE BOX
By David F. Leigh

Foster McFarland lives inside the Box.

Technically, he lives inside a house. But the house is inside the Box, as is a lawn, a small lake, and the tiny forest that comprise the thirteen acres of prime real estate within Foster McFarland’s Box.

Foster McFarland thinks inside the Box.



--==//oOo\\==--

When people outside the Box had problems in need of outside the box thinking, they took their problems inside the Box to Foster. Foster had a reputation outside the Box for outside the box thinking. The people outside the Box never thought as far outside the box as Foster thinks inside the Box.

The first problem Foster McFarland solved was that of his agoraphobia. He wasn’t always irrationally frightened of open spaces; but he once read a Calvin and Hobbes cartoon in which young Calvin imagined that his father had forgotten to pay the gravity bill. As Foster considered the panel in which Calvin was swept into the vast empty sky, he pondered what such a thing would be like. He looked up at the vast, empty sky above him, dropped his newspaper, ran inside the house, and never looked at that sky with his naked eyes again.

It didn’t matter. Inside the house, Foster had a television, and a telephone, and a computer, and the Internet. He continued to think outside the box, and soon amassed a number of patents. These made him extremely wealthy, and he had the Box built around him. He liked Nature, and built the Box big enough to hold enough of it that he would be able to enjoy the outdoors indoors. Inside the Box he built the brilliant Sun and the illuminated Moon that tracked across the azure ceiling that was his sky. Bright birds painted their colors across his sky and nested in the trees of his forest. They shared the trees with squirrels and other wildlife. Foster enjoyed their company, secure in the knowledge that should gravity ever fail, he would not be swept away.

At first Foster had food and consumables delivered to him from outside the Box. But as time went on, he watched the news of the world on his computer and satellite television. He watched as people became more tribal and divisive and violent. He saw them become petty and jealous. He saw them riot in the streets. This began to frighten him. What if someone outside the Box -- a delivery person, or a visitor -- were to become jealous of him in his Box? Would they turn their violence towards him? What he needed was self-sufficiency.

So Foster McFarland, intrigued by the new technology of 3D printing, set about improving it. He devised machines that print with proteins and starches, ceramics and metals. He learned to print all the things he might need… cakes and pies, beef and lasagna, clothing and shoes. And lest anyone be jealous, he shared his knowledge with the world through more patents. These made him astonishingly wealthy, and even more afraid.

He needn’t have feared. People loved Foster’s devices, even though the majority of them had no knowledge of the man behind the patents. But Foster didn’t know that, taking his information from news feeds and blogs. So he locked the massive door of the Box and remained inside, enjoying the bright sunshine and pH-balanced rain of his computer-modeled, climate-controlled personal space.

But as time went on, he continued to watch the news of the world on his computer and satellite television. And it seemed to him that despite all of his work, the world was as bad off as it always had been. Certainly, the people who could buy his devices had seen their lives improve, and you might think that the things they didn’t consume because of his inventions would have gone to those less fortunate. Real beef should be poverty food, he thought. But the proteins and starches that were the raw materials of Foster’s machines had to come from somewhere, and the policy makers who used his appliances loved animals far too much to raise them for food when they no longer had to. Even as they raised fewer animals, consumption remained high, and they bought more and more of Foster’s machines. This made Foster ridiculously wealthy.

So Foster began giving his money away. He gave it to the poor. He gave it to the third world. He gave it to the communists, and the socialists, and the populists. He gave it to everyone who could not afford his devices. And they all freely gave his money to the capitalists to buy more devices, and the money flowed right back to Foster, and he became ludicrously wealthy.

But the devices required energy, and there wasn’t enough to go around. Guilty of the privilege granted to him by ability and success, Foster McFarland looked for some way to free the grid of his power-hungry Box. And he finally did. For ages, people had dreamt of zero-point energy; clean and inexhaustible. However, dreaming isn’t the same as thinking, so they had always failed to make it a reality. But thinking is something Foster did very well, and outside the Universe is as far outside the box as it is possible to think. He created his generator; and for an encore, he upgraded his devices to print with the stuff of Creation. Now he didn’t even need raw materials.

Then Foster disconnected the Box from the world. Before he did, he gave the world his new creations. He didn’t even patent them this time. He already had more money than he could spend. What could he use it for? What did he need it for? Anything he could ever want was his to be molded from quarks and empty space.

Foster retired. He turned off his computer and his television, and fished on the shore of his mirror-perfect pond. He communed with Nature beneath his fake Sun and faux Moon. He left the world to his own devices.

--==//oOo\\==--

One day… much, much later, Foster was lying in the cool grass of his little world, and once more thought outside the Box. How nice the world must be now that any person could have anything he ever wanted at a whim! The planet was free from want and need and even entropy. It was fueled by the very fire of Heaven itself; limitless power pulled from the space between Spaces. He would see that world. Perhaps the people of the world would even recognize and welcome their savior. He thought about his agoraphobia, and concluded that it was a laughable thing. Just a momentary childhood fear, really; one that he should have easily overcome years before. And so Foster stood and traversed the long, overgrown path to the door of the Box. He tried to turn the handle, but it wouldn’t turn; and he remembered that he had locked it long ago. Fishing around in his pocket, he found a key.

Foster opened the door on the world he had made. Outside the Box, red dust flecked with ash drifted across parched red dunes under a dim, steel grey sky. Foster knew it was either night or day, but he couldn’t say which. There was no real Sun, no real Moon to be seen. If there were clouds, they were fleeting, ghostly things formed from the moisture pulled from his skin. They raced upward to blend seamlessly into the featureless grey firmament. Having done the math, Foster knew the wavering horizon was about three miles away. But with nothing to break the monotonous landscape it might have been three hundred miles. It might have been three feet. The end of the world, right there at his doorstep.

For the first time in his life Foster McFarland thought inside the box and remembered that the fires of Heaven burn with the fury of Hell. Even clean energy creates heat. And an inexhaustible supply...

Well, he thought, that didn’t work.

Retreating inside, he shouldered the door closed, and didn’t bother to lock it. And now...

Foster McFarland thinks inside the Box.




Tell me what you think in the comments. If you want to know far too much about what was going through my head when I wrote it, I have posted some commentary here.


INSIDE THE BOX ©2017 by David F. Leigh, All rights reserved.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

We Still Need IRV

It's an astonishing thing really. Every time which I firmly believe to be satire, it turns out to be a bloody prophecy instead. In this case I'm thinking of a satirical bit I wrote back in July, 2015 called Vote for Donald! In it I point out that "over 60% of people responding to polls have indicated that they would not vote for Trump for President under any circumstances whatsoever."[1]

That actually held true in yesterday's Republican primary in South Carolina. Look at the numbers as supplied by the Associated Press this morning:



There it is, in black-and-white... 67.5% of South Carolinians voting in the primary would rather have someone other than Trump. By any measure... and it's not even close... he's not preferred by the majority.

And yet he "won".

This leads once again to my every-four-year rant regarding plurality voting.

Plurality voting is the system we currently have whereby the candidate with the most votes wins. As you can see for yourself, it's not necessarily the candidate with the most support. It is obvious that it is possible for a population to be stuck with the "leadership" of a candidate that most of them strongly oppose. All that's needed is for the opposition to be split.

This sort of result is what we get when we have a system that presupposes the participation of only two candidates. We get a two-party system which actively works to marginalize alternatives, no matter how broadly their ideas are accepted. This same two-party system opposes the sort of reform that would bring meaningful, beneficial change to politics. And within a party it is possible to "game" the system by encouraging "spoilers" to participate. The people who best illustrate the need for reform are the ones most likely to impede it, as they are not only the same ones who benefit the most from the current system, but the ones most empowered to perpetuate it.

What's needed to combat gaming the system is a system where the  issues actually matter in the voting process. The solution is Instant Run-off (or "Ranked Choice") voting.

Of course, you are free to remain in an unfair system if you so choose. Perhaps you benefit from it yourself. But I think that if most people knew of a viable alternative, they'd change the system as have the people of Australia, Ireland, London, New Zealand, and a number of municipalities in the United States. So each election I follow up my rant with a letter-writing campaign.

Here's a slideshow explanation, using Muppets. Click or use your arrow keys to navigate the slides. If you go full-screen, then pressing Esc will restore you to the blog:


Instant run-off voting encourages voters and candidates to focus on issues, not ad hominem. Furthermore, this breaks the two-party stranglehold on election politics, as voters are empowered to vote honestly, knowing that their vote is not "wasted" should their preferred candidate not win. This is a strong encouragement of third-party participation and increased diversity.

You might not get your favorite candidate, but under this system the voters will always elect a candidate that the maximum number of citizens can best live with.

--==//oOo\\==--

I linked to this video yesterday before the votes were tallied, and I'll do it again now:


Here's another video that illustrates it, perhaps a little more clearly:





[1] A clueless commentator (CC) rather rudely pointed out that over 77% of those who voted yesterday said they didn't want Rubio or Cruz, and that over 92% didn't want Bush. He therefore declares the entire concept pointless. Of course, his general demeanor and lack of grammar and civility indicates that he's not in the habit of expending much thought about such things. The ideal Trump supporter. I suggested he might want to try actually testing the theory instead instead of summarily declaring it pointless.

For my part, I consider it tested. As I mentioned above, polls have already been taken that indicate Trump a least favorite candidate among all voters. The same poll indicated he could pull out a win in a three-way race. Thus far nothing has disproved the accuracy of these numbers. Cruz supporters do not flock to Trump when Cruz is removed from the race. And name-calling the candidates doesn't prove a point.

That a clueless Trump supporter who happened to have benefitted from a broken system continues to support that system merely proves that my point is anything but pointless. He couldn't have illustrated the need for Instant Run-off voting better had he actually tried.